Random(Ben)

I like many other web developers have been waiting for the end of IE6.  I find Internet Explorer 6 frustrating to work with and it differences with modern browsers is infuriating at times.  I have been watching quietly for the last year as the number of IE6 users has steadily dropped.  My opinion has been that once it falls below 1% I should be able to easily convince any company I work with that there is no need to test in IE6.  Below is a graph showing usage by month worldwide of the 3 most used versions of Internet Explorer.

Full Data at http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser_version-ww-monthly-201003-201102

I used this to find an average loss of IE6 users to be around 7.5%.  At that constant rate of loss less than 1% of browser in use will be IE6 in October of 2012.  So why will it be dead in 12 months?  I predict a number of things going into it.

1. People are moving to Firefox, Chrome, and Safari more rapidly as the network effect takes hold.
2. More major companies like Google will push people away from IE6 by putting notices on their site that their software is no longer 100% compatible with it.
3. While IE9 doesn’t have an official release date yet, if Microsoft wants to stay in the Browser game they need to release it before 2011 is over.  When IE9 comes out, a lot of people will switch.
4. As the number of IE6 users dwindle the pressure on the remaining users as resources become more and more focused on them.
5. When CTOs see what the browser landscape looks like at the end of 2011 and see that staying on IE6 is a technological death sentence, they will put the capital towards getting rid of it.  Right now corporations are the where almost all IE6 users are coming from in the US.

The holdouts in all of this will be old big corporations and countries trying to rapidly build their technology base as cheaply as possible.  The reasons for both are the same, the cost of upgrading is too prohibitive.  Even with these hold outs it will be a brave new world for most of us.  Microsoft even has a countdown website of sorts.  I look forward to the end of IE6 and I cannot wait to celebrate its demise!

One more prediction: Once IE6 disappears, IE7 will be the next target and should be see less that 1% market share by the end of 2012.  While IE7 isn’t as horrible as IE6, there are few business reasons to use it, IE8 more or less replicate it and Windows XP can upgrade all the way to IE8.